All three major US equity indexes closed lower Friday, capping a third consecutive week of losses as surging crude oil prices, a downward revision to fourth-quarter economic growth, and renewed pressure on the technology sector combined to push markets to fresh year-to-date closing lows. The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.93% to 22,105.36, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 119 points, or 0.26%, to 46,558.47. For the week, the S&P lost 0.6%, the Dow 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%.
Oil Near $100, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose roughly 2.5% on Friday to settle near $98 per barrel, extending an extraordinary rally that has now taken WTI from approximately $67 before US and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28. Brent crude, the global benchmark, pulled back slightly to around $103 after closing above $100 for the first time since August 2022 on Thursday — a milestone that crystallized the scale of the supply shock now reverberating through energy markets. As Global Market Updates has tracked, international forecasters have warned that a sustained disruption at these price levels risks triggering broad stagflation across both developed and emerging economies.
Policymakers moved on multiple fronts to contain the damage. The International Energy Agency announced it would release a record 400 million barrels from member-nation strategic petroleum reserves — the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency's history — in an effort to stabilize prices and ease the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," per an IEA statement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent separately indicated the US would temporarily allow third-party nations to purchase Russian oil already at sea, a narrow but notable carve-out designed to add incremental barrels to a market struggling to offset lost Iranian flows.
PCE Holds, GDP Revised Sharply Lower
Investors received two major economic data releases Friday, and the composite picture they painted was one of slowing growth beneath a still-elevated inflation rate — a configuration that narrows the Federal Reserve's room to maneuver. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-over-year in January, slightly below economist forecasts for a 2.9% gain and down from 0.4% month-over-month in December to 0.3%. Core PCE — which strips out food and energy — came in at 3.1% annually and 0.4% month-over-month, matching expectations. Both headline and core remain well above the Fed's 2% target, with oil-driven energy costs threatening to push the headline measure higher in coming months.
More jarring was the revision to fourth-quarter US gross domestic product growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q4 GDP down to an annualized rate of 0.7% — half its prior reading of approximately 1.4%. The downward revision reflected weaker consumer spending and softer business investment, raising concerns that the economy entered 2026 on flimsier footing than previously understood, even before the current oil shock and its inflationary aftershocks were fully absorbed.
The 10-year Treasury note yield edged higher to 4.29% at the close, its highest level since February 4 and a level that continues to exert pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. The US Dollar Index gained 0.7% to 100.44 as safe-haven demand persisted, while gold futures retreated nearly 2% to $5,030 per ounce after recent record highs, and silver futures fell 5.5% to around $80.30 per ounce.
Earnings: Adobe, Ulta, and Mag Seven Drag Tech Lower
Corporate earnings releases added to Friday's downward pressure, with two high-profile misses dragging their respective sectors. Shares of Adobe (ADBE) fell 7% after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced plans to step down after 18 years leading the company, injecting leadership uncertainty into a firm already navigating intense competition in AI-powered creative software. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) plunged 14% to lead S&P 500 decliners after the beauty retailer issued soft full-year profit and comparable-store sales guidance, citing consumer caution amid elevated energy prices and broader spending restraint.
All seven members of the so-called Magnificent Seven technology group ended the session in negative territory. Meta Platforms (META) led declines with a loss of nearly 4% after The New York Times reported the company was delaying the rollout of a new artificial intelligence model due to performance concerns. The tech-heavy Nasdaq's nearly 1% decline on the day reflected the broadening rotation out of high-multiple growth names as investors grow increasingly wary of an environment where bond yields remain elevated and economic momentum appears to be fading.
Shares of fertilizer producers including Mosaic (MOS), CF Industries (CF), and Nutrien (NTR) retreated 6%, 4.5%, and 1%, respectively, after a sharp rally this month driven by expectations that Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions would benefit domestic agricultural input producers.
Ahead: FOMC, Fed Chair Subpoena Ruling, Stagflation Watch
The Federal Reserve holds its next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting the week of March 18, and markets broadly expect the committee to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at its current target range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell received an unusual legal reprieve Friday when a federal judge threw out the Justice Department's attempts to subpoena him, with Judge James Boasberg writing that there was "abundant evidence that the subpoenas' dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will." The ruling reinforces institutional continuity at the Fed even as the political backdrop around monetary policy grows more fraught. As the broader geopolitical dimensions of the Iran conflict continue to weigh on energy markets, Foreign Diplomacy's analysis of the deadlocked UN Security Council response suggests diplomatic containment remains elusive — a dynamic that could keep oil elevated and inflation risks tilted upward through the spring.
With PCE running at 3.1% on a core basis, GDP growth revised to just 0.7%, oil near $98, and all three major indexes printing fresh 2026 closing lows, the setup heading into the FOMC week is one of the most complex the committee has faced since the post-pandemic tightening cycle began. The Fed's dual mandate — price stability and maximum employment — is being pulled in competing directions, and the data as of Friday's close offers no clear resolution.
