Coverage of Federal Reserve monetary policy, FOMC decisions, interest rate changes, Treasury yields, and their impact on US financial markets.
The 10-year note climbs to 4.37% on its third whipsaw in four days as Iran rejects direct talks, back-to-back Treasury auctions disappoint, and the Fed holds firm amid oil-driven inflation.
CME FedWatch briefly showed non-trivial odds of a 2026 rate hike as oil above $112 pushed inflation expectations higher and 10-year yields spiked toward 4.5%.
FOMC voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75%. Dot plot signals one 2026 cut. Core PCE revised to 2.7%. Dow −768 pts to 2026 low after Powell press conference.